Route Ebrard.
The mayor of Mexico City, in addition to Lopez Obrador, Cardenas Batel and Jesus Ortega, one of the candidates the Presidency of the PRD in 2012.
far, Ebrard's performance is assessed as positive in surveys qualified management. Some of its programs, such as scholarships and unemployment insurance are controversial and particularly critical of the federal government, but nevertheless have a positive political impact among the inhabitants of Mexico City and as the columnist Ricardo German , some projects are aimed at young people to vote for the first time in 2009 or even 2012 and Ebrard is already working to win their support.
Other actions such as eviction of hawkers from the center of the capital, probably have an adverse political cost in the short term but long-term commitment between the middle will be profitable. Also performing tasks such as ice rinks and beaches, has a populist sense and public decisions such as expanding the subway network will have an effective result in the administration of DF
In the PRD, within the universe of tribes it up, stand three fronts to achieve the nomination in 2012, the AMLO peer group, which is part Ebrard, the force whose main stronghold is Cardenas Michoacan and the tribe of the "mongrels"
In this sense, the first Ebrard obstacle is Lopez Obrador. The question is to know what decision to take AMLO with respect to 2012. Although the mass media and analysts for dead politically Obrador, this is not true, despite the loss of supporters is likely still has the 20 or 25% support in the country, that is above average PRD vote hovers around 15% of national vote.
What determines Obrador's decision and therefore Ebrard?
In the first place, the outcome next year of the PRD's internal elections of the action taken by the permanent campaign Obrador maintains throughout the country, its hypothetical application to federal deputy in 2009 and essentially I think the evolution of the management of Calderon, a severe crisis in the federal government feeds the aspirations of Tabasco, perhaps a federal government acceptable in terms of results provides more opportunities Ebrard's candidacy.
current Jesus Ortega, who is parliamentary control of the PRD, is another obstacle to overcome, although in 2009 is an excellent opportunity for either repositioning Ebrard or "mutts." Also the election of 2009 in Mexico City, will be a good reference to the real possibilities of Ebrard and since then his performance as president is crucial.
The public ignorance of federal authority in figure Calderon, is a handicap against him, as well as differences with the Vatican official. To his credit, plays have a more positive assessment of its image among the middle and upper class, unlike that AMLO was always viewed with suspicion among most of these segments.
One last point, is the eventual support of Elba Esther Gordillo, possibly all the candidates of the 3 relevant parties, is the only one who has the sympathy of the leader of the SNTE and occasionally be supported by the diaper in coalition with the PRD or just for them in an extreme scenario for Ebrard.
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